{
  "topic": "programming",
  "topic_label": "Programming",
  "unit": "downloads",
  "target": "value",
  "source": "npm-api:react-daily-downloads",
  "freq_days": 1.0,
  "lookback": 60,
  "horizon_steps": 7,
  "horizon_days": 7,
  "hidden_size": 64,
  "num_layers": 2,
  "dropout": 0.1,
  "input_size": 7,
  "features": [
    "rel",
    "ret1",
    "ma7",
    "ma30",
    "vol7",
    "dow_sin",
    "dow_cos"
  ],
  "epochs_used": 24,
  "val_mae": 1081315.1575039215,
  "val_rel_mae": 0.09275485575199127,
  "val_h1_mape": 0.0775759043754776,
  "val_h1_smape": 0.08062340872605334,
  "naive_baseline_mae": 2912631.3987902985,
  "validation": {
    "steps": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "mae": 1081315.1575039215,
        "rmse": 1393405.1577700882,
        "smape": 0.08062340872605334
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "mae": 1457942.7086974755,
        "rmse": 1819074.6315436058,
        "smape": 0.09782953562807159
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "mae": 1457492.786416201,
        "rmse": 1790165.5661966072,
        "smape": 0.090465711399876
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "mae": 1422521.1437642304,
        "rmse": 1830097.1881847112,
        "smape": 0.09312221063410053
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "mae": 1378297.2670049914,
        "rmse": 1823918.4680747306,
        "smape": 0.09098109590282513
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "mae": 1459334.2627189066,
        "rmse": 1929853.4016283145,
        "smape": 0.09565270751071872
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "mae": 1576373.5303735416,
        "rmse": 2047752.596693756,
        "smape": 0.09765463028933598
      }
    ],
    "directional": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "accuracy": 0.8311688311688312,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "accuracy": 0.8831168831168831,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "accuracy": 0.8311688311688312,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "accuracy": 0.8441558441558441,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "accuracy": 0.948051948051948,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "accuracy": 0.8051948051948052,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "accuracy": 0.7272727272727273,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 77
      }
    ],
    "naive": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "mae": 2912631.3987902985,
        "rmse": 4216168.554468019,
        "smape": 0.1994760531332476
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "mae": 5382557.681533507,
        "rmse": 6466437.0531896185,
        "smape": 0.3600633072704859
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "mae": 6135849.914412142,
        "rmse": 7246207.874887046,
        "smape": 0.3973031947722054
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "mae": 6218582.165139002,
        "rmse": 7359983.632051111,
        "smape": 0.40167516597109487
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "mae": 5574317.677547133,
        "rmse": 6692704.619198067,
        "smape": 0.36762840848968087
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "mae": 3382645.0332593285,
        "rmse": 4636849.211887669,
        "smape": 0.22574525822061037
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "mae": 1682571.9860159422,
        "rmse": 2171742.060393556,
        "smape": 0.10638260981283404
      }
    ],
    "sma": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "mae": 3816008.888576795,
        "rmse": 4186519.3632731508,
        "smape": 0.24863564431779003
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "mae": 3894921.8967178455,
        "rmse": 4268781.738751068,
        "smape": 0.25275246123731737
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "mae": 3941276.856369674,
        "rmse": 4321917.917044462,
        "smape": 0.2523278697213674
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "mae": 3993130.4145764485,
        "rmse": 4388537.5884280335,
        "smape": 0.25387177613979384
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "mae": 4004930.1928452486,
        "rmse": 4417420.4699021615,
        "smape": 0.2539681032848986
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "mae": 4064108.70890328,
        "rmse": 4467073.438153654,
        "smape": 0.2571087862927592
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "mae": 4116881.414301527,
        "rmse": 4525955.221997797,
        "smape": 0.25979524552603434
      }
    ],
    "rel_mae": 0.09275485575199127,
    "h1_mape": 0.0775759043754776,
    "h1_smape": 0.08062340872605334,
    "mae_h1": 1081315.1575039215,
    "mae_all": 1404753.8366398956
  },
  "test": {
    "steps": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "mae": 1242711.1505421752,
        "rmse": 1636051.2031262103,
        "smape": 0.06650150875367311
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "mae": 1533541.0670072099,
        "rmse": 1854928.7971391778,
        "smape": 0.07867010886423331
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "mae": 1461370.0796395827,
        "rmse": 1823044.1535461023,
        "smape": 0.06538277575567529
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "mae": 1800485.0319195893,
        "rmse": 2149958.3403218696,
        "smape": 0.08236106177963473
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "mae": 1468723.7176407524,
        "rmse": 1906155.045416332,
        "smape": 0.06829107613455898
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "mae": 1270110.7369431616,
        "rmse": 1608490.4600397164,
        "smape": 0.06086957547701836
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "mae": 1178355.0601166335,
        "rmse": 1875418.2063675032,
        "smape": 0.056967273516748386
      }
    ],
    "directional": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "accuracy": 0.7625,
        "coverage": 0.963855421686747,
        "n": 80
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "accuracy": 0.8795180722891566,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 83
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "accuracy": 0.8433734939759037,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 83
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "accuracy": 0.9036144578313253,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 83
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "accuracy": 0.963855421686747,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 83
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "accuracy": 0.8554216867469879,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 83
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "accuracy": 0.6144578313253012,
        "coverage": 1.0,
        "n": 83
      }
    ],
    "naive": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "mae": 3572911.267174269,
        "rmse": 5443199.473998792,
        "smape": 0.18437194289152106
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "mae": 6836542.386231691,
        "rmse": 8222487.424499823,
        "smape": 0.35194014419387926
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "mae": 7504176.57925729,
        "rmse": 8900758.363387942,
        "smape": 0.3788566887953088
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "mae": 7370164.098949653,
        "rmse": 8836665.557402734,
        "smape": 0.37103869568422243
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "mae": 6756509.185215714,
        "rmse": 8231098.999237719,
        "smape": 0.3449117670238804
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "mae": 3779822.0548579604,
        "rmse": 5592706.884987545,
        "smape": 0.19395930309815293
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "mae": 1245513.729293179,
        "rmse": 1948108.156985447,
        "smape": 0.06013278582921797
      }
    ],
    "sma": [
      {
        "step": 1,
        "mae": 4509036.008829986,
        "rmse": 5036991.021148156,
        "smape": 0.22668138122801032
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "mae": 4544894.463867113,
        "rmse": 5069003.839308221,
        "smape": 0.227858571744854
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "mae": 4613426.203748552,
        "rmse": 5109710.877795267,
        "smape": 0.230470730030094
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "mae": 4611676.215070522,
        "rmse": 5086032.167537715,
        "smape": 0.22824124641181628
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "mae": 4636402.638922273,
        "rmse": 5097811.471036176,
        "smape": 0.22837298257071148
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "mae": 4736545.643677804,
        "rmse": 5171231.1895095855,
        "smape": 0.23340451474386317
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "mae": 4821588.237797462,
        "rmse": 5246136.002793379,
        "smape": 0.2377697105396999
      }
    ],
    "rel_mae": 0.07210897654294968,
    "h1_mape": 0.06444908229823411,
    "h1_smape": 0.06650150875367311,
    "mae_h1": 1242711.1505421752,
    "mae_all": 1422185.2634013004
  },
  "step_std_rel": [
    0.1084279716014862,
    0.12661416828632355,
    0.10817515105009079,
    0.11449623852968216,
    0.12005589157342911,
    0.13052773475646973,
    0.12516777217388153
  ],
  "last_date": "2026-08-17 00:00:00",
  "last_value": 15849863.0
}