ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.0%, annualized vol 94.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=122.03, end=122.03, cumulative_return=+0.0%, annualized_volatility=94.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.4, 'cpi_yoy': 252.561, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20431.641, 't10y2y_spread': 0.16, 't10y3m_spread': 0.3, 'breakeven_10y': 1.78, 'hy_oas': 4.4, 'ig_oas': 1.39, 'ted_spread': 0.37, 'mortgage_30y': 4.45, 'vix': 19.1299991607666}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2019-01-30 was +22.55%, which classifies as 'positive'.


AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.0%, annualized vol 112.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=82.96, end=82.96, cumulative_return=+0.0%, annualized_volatility=112.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 282.543, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21932.71, 't10y2y_spread': 0.79, 't10y3m_spread': 1.58, 'breakeven_10y': 2.43, 'hy_oas': 3.1, 'ig_oas': 0.97, 'ted_spread': 0.12, 'mortgage_30y': 3.45, 'vix': 20.309999465942383}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-01-13]

Predict whether the return of AVAX-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2022-01-14 was -6.80%, which classifies as 'negative'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -29.7%, annualized vol 63.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1881.22, end=1322.60, cumulative_return=-29.7%, annualized_volatility=63.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.08, 'cpi_yoy': 298.007, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.41, 't10y3m_spread': 0.44, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 5.02, 'ig_oas': 1.6, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.66, 'vix': 31.36000061035156}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-10-09]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2022-10-10 was +21.79%, which classifies as 'positive'.


MORT over past 60 days: cumulative return -4.4%, annualized vol 19.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: MORT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=10.43, end=9.97, cumulative_return=-4.4%, annualized_volatility=19.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.33, 'cpi_yoy': 288.561, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21967.045, 't10y2y_spread': 0.36, 't10y3m_spread': 2.04, 'breakeven_10y': 2.86, 'hy_oas': 3.68, 'ig_oas': 1.26, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 5.0, 'vix': 22.700000762939453}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of MORT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for MORT starting 2022-04-18 was -3.41%, which classifies as 'negative'.


BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +27.5%, annualized vol 88.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=22.71, end=28.94, cumulative_return=+27.5%, annualized_volatility=88.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 260.319, 'unemployment': 6.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.57, 't10y3m_spread': 0.61, 'breakeven_10y': 1.64, 'hy_oas': 5.38, 'ig_oas': 1.43, 'ted_spread': 0.14, 'mortgage_30y': 2.88, 'vix': 27.6299991607666}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of BNB-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2020-10-05 was +8.71%, which classifies as 'positive'.


FXI over past 60 days: cumulative return -22.7%, annualized vol 36.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: FXI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=35.80, end=27.67, cumulative_return=-22.7%, annualized_volatility=36.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.14, 'cpi_yoy': 237.498, 'unemployment': 5.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 18857.418, 't10y2y_spread': 1.45, 't10y3m_spread': 2.11, 'breakeven_10y': 1.56, 'hy_oas': 5.62, 'ig_oas': 1.67, 'ted_spread': 0.27, 'mortgage_30y': 3.9, 'vix': 24.25}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2015-09-14] ["Apple's stock may rise 50% on iPhone program: Barron's Shares in Apple Inc. \"could soar 50% in the coming year\" thanks in large part to the tech giant's new plan to lease iPhones and offer annual upgrades, says a story in the past weekend's edition of Barron's. \"The leasing program attacks the primary bear case on Apple--slowing iPhone growth,\" the Barron's story adds. Shares in Apple were up 0.5% in thin premarket trading early Monday.", "Apple's stock climbs 1.1% in premarket trade", "Apple's new iPhone pre-orders off to a 'strong' start, analyst says Apple Inc.'s stock climbed 1.5% in premarket trade Monday, amid signs that pre-orders for iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus are off to a strong start, with particular strength out of China, according to Analyst Daniel Ives at FBR & Co. \"Initial demand looks strong, based on estimated wait times as displayed on Apple's Web site and various blogs,\" Ives wrote in a note to clients. \"While there are still unknowns about inventory levels, we note that China demand in particular looks 'very strong' out of the gates and is a positive sign that the white-hot momentum out of this region shows no signs of abating despite macro headwinds out of China.\" He said wait times for 6s Plus are roughly three to four weeks in the U.S., U.K. and China. For the 6s, wait times are shorter in the U.S. and U.K., depending on the carrier, and two to three weeks in China. Given recent data, Ives said he believes pre-sales of the new iPhones will exceed the 4 million orders Apple had for iPhone 6/iPhone 6 Plus a year ago. The stock has dropped 10% over the past three months through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 8.2%.", "Is Twitter negotiating with a CEO or working on an acquisition? Opinion: There could be several reasons that CEO search has topped three months The search for Twitter Inc.\u2019s chief executive is now three months old, why is it taking so long? A lot of factors, including the Jack Dorsey question, could be at play.", "Here\u2019s why the next 15 years will be great for stocks Critical intelligence before the U.S. market opens We enter Monday\u2019s session on the heels of a rare weekly win. It wasn\u2019t easy, either. Expect more of these violent spurts of volatility as we enter a week punctuated by the Federal Reserve\u2019s decision on interest rates. Will they? Won\u2019t they?", "Apple TV needs Angry Birds-like app to be successful gaming platform Analysts at Sterne Agee said in a note on Monday that Apple Inc.'s new Apple TV device has the potential to become a player in, and help expand the video-gaming market. Apple's much-anticipated device, unveiled last week with a $149-$199 price tag, streams video content and has gaming capabilities, including the capability for third-party video-game apps to be developed for it through the device's tvOS. While lead analyst Arvind Bhatia said existing mobile game apps will undoubtedly be ported to Apple TV, the Cupertino-based comp

Predict whether the return of FXI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for FXI starting 2015-09-15 was +5.21%, which classifies as 'positive'.


IYR over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.8%, annualized vol 16.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: IYR
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=58.01, end=59.04, cumulative_return=+1.8%, annualized_volatility=16.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.55, 'cpi_yoy': 243.618, 'unemployment': 4.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19398.343, 't10y2y_spread': 1.25, 't10y3m_spread': 1.94, 'breakeven_10y': 1.95, 'hy_oas': 4.22, 'ig_oas': 1.3, 'ted_spread': 0.5, 'mortgage_30y': 4.32, 'vix': 14.039999961853027}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of IYR over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for IYR starting 2017-01-03 was -0.35%, which classifies as 'flat'.


CORN over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.0%, annualized vol 19.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: CORN
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=23.14, end=22.90, cumulative_return=-1.0%, annualized_volatility=19.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.12, 'cpi_yoy': 237.733, 'unemployment': 5.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 18892.206, 't10y2y_spread': 1.43, 't10y3m_spread': 2.08, 'breakeven_10y': 1.51, 'hy_oas': 5.97, 'ig_oas': 1.67, 'ted_spread': 0.31, 'mortgage_30y': 3.79, 'vix': 14.460000038146973}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of CORN over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for CORN starting 2015-10-26 was -5.05%, which classifies as 'negative'.


DBB over past 60 days: cumulative return +4.4%, annualized vol 24.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: DBB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=16.49, end=17.20, cumulative_return=+4.4%, annualized_volatility=24.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.83, 'cpi_yoy': 298.832, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.72, 't10y3m_spread': -0.8, 'breakeven_10y': 2.36, 'hy_oas': 4.48, 'ig_oas': 1.41, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.49, 'vix': 19.84000015258789}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of DBB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for DBB starting 2022-12-02 was -4.14%, which classifies as 'negative'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -58.0%, annualized vol 82.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.07, end=0.03, cumulative_return=-58.0%, annualized_volatility=82.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.19, 'cpi_yoy': 252.767, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20304.874, 't10y2y_spread': 0.11, 't10y3m_spread': 0.48, 'breakeven_10y': 1.83, 'hy_oas': 4.48, 'ig_oas': 1.51, 'ted_spread': 0.41, 'mortgage_30y': 4.75, 'vix': 21.76000022888184}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2018-12-12 was +47.29%, which classifies as 'positive'.


QUAL over past 60 days: cumulative return +9.2%, annualized vol 19.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: QUAL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=97.33, end=106.27, cumulative_return=+9.2%, annualized_volatility=19.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 262.045, 'unemployment': 6.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.79, 't10y3m_spread': 0.86, 'breakeven_10y': 1.85, 'hy_oas': 4.17, 'ig_oas': 1.08, 'ted_spread': 0.14, 'mortgage_30y': 2.72, 'vix': 21.170000076293945}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2020-12-02] ["Are Microsoft And Adobe Coming For Salesforce's Market Share? Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) have teamed up to take on customer relationship management (CRM), which has historically been Salesforce's (NYSE: CRM) domain. ProShares' Executive Director of Thematic Investing Scott Helfstein shares what investors need to know about how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated market trends in the cloud and how their new ETF ProShares MSCI Transformational Changes ETF (NYSEMKT: ANEW) is capitalizing on these transformations. 10 stocks we like better than Salesforce.com When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.* David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Salesforce.com wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys. See the 10 stocks *Stock Advisor returns as of November 20, 2020 Corinne Cardina: Awesome. There are also a couple of more traditional tech stocks in the future of work part of the basket. Adobe, I think a lot of people, what comes to mind is Photoshop, Illustrator, InDesign. Microsoft people tend to think about their Office Suite, and Windows. What are some of the ways that these older tech companies are really transforming and how the pandemic has spurred that along? Scott Helfstein: Microsoft is a juggernaut. It's one that's hard for people to wrap their brain around, because it is so prominent. We work with the Office Suite, and Word, Excel, and our operating system. But they've taken a lot of their revenue into the cloud with subscription service. We see that cloud and productivity tools make up about two-thirds. It's really interesting that you talk about Microsoft and Adobe because they've actually announced a partnership a little while ago to take on customer relationship management. So CRM is a new segment, the two of them working in conjunction. By the way, Microsoft, as I think you were implying, also has a big gaming division with Xbox. As we think about virtualizing work, it's a little crazy to think about this. But what about the virtual reality coffee break? Or the virtual reality water cooler? There are some companies that are uniquely positioned to be able to facilitate a new and different remote working environment. Microsoft I think is one that investors should continue to pay attention to. Really important from a productivity standpoint, and Adobe as well. My 11-year-old wanted a subscription to Illustrator for his birthday this year. They are not just talking about PDFs, but they are important in secure document management. However, we've got Photoshop, we've got Illustrator, they also have an artificial intelligence product called Sensei, which actually helps people to do their graphic and document management. They're on the cutting edge of artificial

Predict whether the return of QUAL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for QUAL starting 2020-12-03 was +2.39%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLI over past 60 days: cumulative return +14.1%, annualized vol 16.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=81.76, end=93.33, cumulative_return=+14.1%, annualized_volatility=16.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.07, 'cpi_yoy': 266.614, 'unemployment': 6.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21440.929, 't10y2y_spread': 1.45, 't10y3m_spread': 1.59, 'breakeven_10y': 2.34, 'hy_oas': 3.25, 'ig_oas': 0.95, 'ted_spread': 0.17, 'mortgage_30y': 3.04, 'vix': 17.290000915527344}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2021-04-19] ["The Station: A chat with Scale AI's Alexandr Wang, the NYC scooter winners and TuSimple goes public The Station is a weekly newsletter dedicated to all things transportation. Sign up here \u2014 just click The Station \u2014 to receive it every weekend in your inbox. This is The Station, a weekly newsletter dedicated to all the ways people and packages move (today and in the future) from Point A to Point B.", "FleetPride Acquires Steubenville Truck Center, Continues Parts and Service Expansion FleetPride, Inc. announced today that it has acquired the assets of Steubenville Truck Center in Steubenville, Ohio. For nearly 70 years, Steubenville Truck Center has been providing outstanding truck parts and service to customers in eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. The company has been in its current location since 1998 and is managed by Larry Remp.", "Verizon starts C-Band equipment deployment What you need to know: Basebands, radios and antennas from Ericsson and Samsung are currently being deployed in the Verizon network.The arrival of RAN equipment in combination with Verizon\u2019s recent tower agreements will speed deployment of 5G Ultra Wideband on existing infrastructure using C-band spectrum.100 million customers will have access to the game-changing 5G Ultra Wideband service using C-band spectrum by the end of the first quarter in 2022 NEW YORK, April 19, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon recently began installation of C-band equipment from Ericsson and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd to speed deployment of its 5G Ultra Wideband and fixed wireless broadband service on its recently acquired C-band spectrum. Verizon secured an average of 161 MHz of C-band spectrum nationwide in the recent FCC auction, which will allow the company to offer expanded mobility and broadband services to millions more consumers and businesses. C-band spectrum provides a valuable middle ground between capacity and coverage for 5G networks, and will enable 5G Ultra Wideband speeds and coverage for both mobility, home broadband and business internet solutions. Deploying 5G Ultra Wideband on this spectrum requires new network equipment including basebands, radios and antennas to be placed on existing towers. Verizon tapped Ericsson and Samsung to supply the Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment for this massive deployment. Although the initial spectrum won\u2019t be cleared until the end of this year, Verizon and its vendor partners have already begun the work to ensure the super-fast 5G Ultra Wideband service using C-band is deployed to 100 million customers by March 2022. \u201cWe\u2019re moving fast, with cooperation from our equipment partners, to have everything in place as soon as this C-band spectrum is cleared for use,\u201d said Kyle Malady, Chief Technology Officer at Verizon. \u201cThis is a massive undertaking designed to add this game-changing capability as quickly as possible to the network our customers already rely on for consiste

Predict whether the return of XLI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLI starting 2021-04-20 was +2.71%, which classifies as 'positive'.


BIL over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.0%, annualized vol 0.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BIL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=77.77, end=77.76, cumulative_return=-0.0%, annualized_volatility=0.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.06, 'cpi_yoy': 266.614, 'unemployment': 6.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21440.929, 't10y2y_spread': 1.49, 't10y3m_spread': 1.64, 'breakeven_10y': 2.42, 'hy_oas': 3.24, 'ig_oas': 0.94, 'ted_spread': 0.17, 'mortgage_30y': 2.98, 'vix': 17.610000610351562}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of BIL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BIL starting 2021-04-30 was -0.01%, which classifies as 'flat'.


ICSH over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.1%, annualized vol 2.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ICSH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=38.50, end=38.54, cumulative_return=+0.1%, annualized_volatility=2.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.36, 'cpi_yoy': 238.08, 'unemployment': 5.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19001.69, 't10y2y_spread': 1.0, 't10y3m_spread': 1.59, 'breakeven_10y': 1.48, 'hy_oas': 7.03, 'ig_oas': 1.93, 'ted_spread': 0.32, 'mortgage_30y': 3.64, 'vix': 17.350000381469727}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of ICSH over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ICSH starting 2016-03-08 was +0.24%, which classifies as 'flat'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -8.6%, annualized vol 70.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1294.22, end=1183.20, cumulative_return=-8.6%, annualized_volatility=70.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.83, 'cpi_yoy': 298.786, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.75, 't10y3m_spread': -0.69, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 4.51, 'ig_oas': 1.42, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.58, 'vix': 20.350000381469727}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-11-23]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2022-11-24 was +5.18%, which classifies as 'positive'.


TIP over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.2%, annualized vol 1.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: TIP
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=77.16, end=77.29, cumulative_return=+0.2%, annualized_volatility=1.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.43, 'cpi_yoy': 249.577, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20044.077, 't10y2y_spread': 0.54, 't10y3m_spread': 1.05, 'breakeven_10y': 2.08, 'hy_oas': 3.65, 'ig_oas': 1.1, 'ted_spread': 0.45, 'mortgage_30y': 4.44, 'vix': 19.020000457763672}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of TIP over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for TIP starting 2018-03-20 was +0.36%, which classifies as 'flat'.


VCIT over past 60 days: cumulative return -8.6%, annualized vol 8.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VCIT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=70.79, end=64.72, cumulative_return=-8.6%, annualized_volatility=8.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.83, 'cpi_yoy': 298.786, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.49, 't10y3m_spread': -0.04, 'breakeven_10y': 2.48, 'hy_oas': 4.77, 'ig_oas': 1.61, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.95, 'vix': 24.549999237060547}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of VCIT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VCIT starting 2022-11-07 was +5.81%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLK over past 60 days: cumulative return -9.9%, annualized vol 28.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=69.45, end=62.60, cumulative_return=-9.9%, annualized_volatility=28.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.08, 'cpi_yoy': 298.007, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.32, 't10y3m_spread': -0.04, 'breakeven_10y': 2.51, 'hy_oas': 4.88, 'ig_oas': 1.69, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 28.459999084472656}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-10-25] ["Why Is Everyone Talking About Apple? Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock has fallen about 10% since mid-September. The leading causes for the dip have been numerous reports that sales for its base-model iPhone 14 and 14 Plus have been underwhelming and an overall slowdown of consumer demand in the tech market. As the highest-valued company in the world, with a market cap of $2.37 trillion, Apple is one of the world's most scrutinized companies. The last two months have been no different as analysts pick apart the company's September iPhone launch and its 2022 iPad lineup unveiling in mid-October. Understanding the strategy behind Apple's recently announced products can be a great way to predict how far your investment will go. So, here's why Apple's new products have been making headlines. A confusing iPad launch On Oct. 18, Apple unveiled its 2022 iPad refresh by introducing a newly designed base iPad and upgraded iPad Pros. Time will tell how the new Apple tablets fare with consumers, but the media has been quick to criticize the devices. Bloomberg has called the new iPad lineup \"perplexing,\" while Techradar said its \"software and now hardware is a mess.\" The primary reason for the confusion lies in upgrades to the entry-level iPads, but not the Pro versions. The base iPads received a redesign with new colors, relocation of the front-facing camera to the landscape's edge, and a revamped Magic Keyboard accessory. Meanwhile, the 2022 iPad Pro models received the smallest update in their history. They were bumped up to the M2 chip, making them 15% faster than their predecessors, along with other minor performance upgrades. However, the higher-cost versions didn't receive the same optimal camera relocation or the redesigned Magic Keyboard. The Pro models didn't even receive the customary camera or display improvements that consumers have come to expect year to year. As a result, Apple has given consumers little reason to upgrade to the 2022 iPad Pro and created confusion by omitting features given to the base iPad. Moreover, despite the base iPad's more enticing improvements, it has not been left unscathed by criticism. The tablet has undergone a significant redesign, including its charging port going from lightning to the market-preferred USB-C. However, it is still only compatible with the 2015 Apple Pencil accessory that charges via lightning rather than the redesigned 2018 version that charges magnetically along the side of higher-tiered iPads. As a result, users need to use an adapter to charge their Apple Pencil with the new base iPad. iPhone 14 Plus is a bust In addition to a confusing iPad lineup, Apple has reportedly faced dismal demand for its iPhone 14 Plus, which hit stores on Oct. 7. The base-model iPhone was announced on Sept. 7, along with two new Pro models and a standard-sized base model. Apple had high hopes for the larger iPhone 14 as it signified a shakeup in the lineup. There hasn't been a Plus-sized base model since 2017's iPho

Predict whether the return of XLK over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLK starting 2022-10-26 was +6.36%, which classifies as 'positive'.


QQQ over past 60 days: cumulative return +8.2%, annualized vol 11.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: QQQ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=163.66, end=177.15, cumulative_return=+8.2%, annualized_volatility=11.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.38, 'cpi_yoy': 255.296, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20602.275, 't10y2y_spread': 0.21, 't10y3m_spread': 0.04, 'breakeven_10y': 1.88, 'hy_oas': 4.01, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.15, 'mortgage_30y': 4.1, 'vix': 16.040000915527344}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2019-05-10] ["Definitely Don\u2019t Buy Intel Stock Today! Conditions have quickly gone from gone from dismay to sell-in-May in a very big way for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:) the past couple weeks. And for INTC bulls, while there\u2019s a technical case for a bottom, I\u2019d suggest waiting patiently. Remember, there\u2019s always a line somewhere. Let me explain. Source: Shutterstock Just when INTC investors thought it couldn\u2019t possibly get any worse, Thursday proved otherwise. Following late April\u2019s weak guidance and the company\u2019s first decline in data center sales and profits in a decade as its earnings centerpiece, Intel\u2019s first analyst day in over two years served to rattle already frazzled investors even more. INTC shares tumbled more than 5% and towards four-month lows as detailed positive trends for free cash flow, capital allocation and operating margins were derailed by surprisingly weak gross margins guidance and declining market share amid growing competition from rival Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:). Along with Intel\u2019s continued difficulties off and on the price chart, Thursday\u2019s confessional saw BMO Capital Markets downgrade shares to market perform, as well as receiving from brokers Cowen & Co. and Bernstein. Intel Stock Monthly Price Chart I like to say there\u2019s always a line somewhere when it comes to the price chart. For bullish investors, it\u2019s a warning to guard against technically coming up with overly aggressive reasons to remain long or initiate a purchase in the face of an adverse price move. Right now, INTC stock is showing those supportive-looking lines in spades on the monthly view. And that could be very costly if bulls aren\u2019t careful. Rationalizing a low in Intel shares based on the next level of support, whether it\u2019s a trend-line or Fibonacci level as I\u2019ve detailed, could take bulls from today\u2019s $46 down to around $28 a share. That\u2019s not to say investors shouldn\u2019t buy INTC stock as key price levels are being tested. However, having a game plan and exit strategy is critical to avoid potentially deep losses. Buying Intel Stock My recommendation for buying into Intel stock\u2019s uptrend is to wait for a stronger entry. This is likely to look like one of two scenarios on the INTC price chart. The first is if a technical floor is found near current levels and Intel\u2019s steepest trend-line and highest layers of Fibonacci support manage to hold the stock price above $45. I\u2019m not holding my breath. But if a bullish candlestick pattern can develop over the next couple weeks with support still intact, buying INTC stock makes more sense in conjunction with a stop-loss. The second situation where price action in Intel might warrant buying shares is continued persistent weakness. I\u2019d personally avoid buying shares in between $40 to $45. The next area where INTC stock has the backing of both an uptrend line and Fibonacci supports and where I\u2019d be interes

Predict whether the return of QQQ over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for QQQ starting 2019-05-13 was +2.11%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SHY over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.5%, annualized vol 2.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SHY
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=73.07, end=72.73, cumulative_return=-0.5%, annualized_volatility=2.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.58, 'cpi_yoy': 294.957, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21967.045, 't10y2y_spread': 0.12, 't10y3m_spread': 1.41, 'breakeven_10y': 2.55, 'hy_oas': 5.11, 'ig_oas': 1.54, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 5.81, 'vix': 26.950000762939453}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of SHY over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SHY starting 2022-06-28 was +0.52%, which classifies as 'flat'.


XLY over past 60 days: cumulative return +20.2%, annualized vol 19.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLY
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=59.11, end=71.08, cumulative_return=+20.2%, annualized_volatility=19.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 259.997, 'unemployment': 7.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20558.879, 't10y2y_spread': 0.5, 't10y3m_spread': 0.52, 'breakeven_10y': 1.65, 'hy_oas': 5.04, 'ig_oas': 1.35, 'ted_spread': 0.14, 'mortgage_30y': 2.93, 'vix': 33.599998474121094}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2020-09-03] ["Apple's stock falls 2.2% premarket, after shedding 2.1% on Wednesday", "These 74 stocks in the S&P 500 hit all-time records on Wednesday It was a broad rally, one that wasn\u2019t led by the information technology sector It was a broad rally, one that wasn\u2019t led by the information technology sector.", "This Election Could Be Really Weird. Hedge Your Portfolio. Investors should consider insulating their investment portfolios from bizarre political shocks. Here\u2019s how.", "How to get your stock trades through when Robinhood, Vanguard and other brokerages go down, as they did this week Use apps and spread your money across more than one platform Use apps and spread your money across more than one platform, says Michael Brush.", "Tyson Foods to open on-site health clinics Shares of Tyson Foods Inc. gained 0.2% in premarket trading on Thursday after the food giant said it will open seven health clinics near its facilities for employees and their families. The clinics, which will be operated by Marathon Health, a privately held provider of worksite health clinics, are expected to open in 2021. Employers are facing rising costs of health care services provided to their employees, and in recent years several large companies including Apple Inc. and Amazon Inc. have announced plans to set up health clinics for their workers. In July Tyson announced that it will create the company's first chief medical officer role. It also outlined a COVID-19 testing strategy that requires it to test thousands of workers for the virus following several coronavirus outbreaks among its workers this summer. Tyson's stock is down 30.3% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up 10.8%.", "Barron\u2019s Daily: The Tech-Stock Rally Is Taking a Breather Facebook bans political ads the week before the election, widely available steroids help most severely ill Covid-19 patients, U.S. debt is set to surpass the size of the economy, and other news to start your day.", "13 Cheap Stocks That Could Be Traps Some stocks are cheap for a reason. They are in declining industries or facing long-term problems in place before the onset of Covid-19.", "Here are Bank of America\u2019s \u2018must-know\u2019 market stats that show \u2018epic polarization\u2019 Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist for Bank of America, has put together his annual list of the top stats on the size, composition, risks, returns, leverage, yields and valuations of the bond and equity universe.", "Dow's nearly 300-point drop led by losses for Apple Inc., Salesforce.com Inc. stocks", "Dow's 550-point drop led by losses in shares of Apple Inc., Salesforce.com Inc.", "Tech stocks and the rest of the market are both very expensive \u2014 for 2 \u2018completely different reasons\u2019 Highflying tech-related stocks and the rest of the market are both very expensive by historical measures, but for different reasons -- a bifurcation that raises an important question for investors, according to one market watcher."

Predict whether the return of XLY over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLY starting 2020-09-04 was +2.30%, which classifies as 'positive'.


PALL over past 60 days: cumulative return +7.0%, annualized vol 25.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: PALL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=94.71, end=101.30, cumulative_return=+7.0%, annualized_volatility=25.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.42, 'cpi_yoy': 249.529, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20044.077, 't10y2y_spread': 0.64, 't10y3m_spread': 1.2, 'breakeven_10y': 2.13, 'hy_oas': 3.5, 'ig_oas': 1.0, 'ted_spread': 0.33, 'mortgage_30y': 4.4, 'vix': 15.800000190734863}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of PALL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for PALL starting 2018-02-27 was -7.07%, which classifies as 'negative'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +61.1%, annualized vol 94.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1.23, end=1.99, cumulative_return=+61.1%, annualized_volatility=94.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 273.91, 'unemployment': 4.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21617.828, 't10y2y_spread': 1.11, 't10y3m_spread': 1.3, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.17, 'ig_oas': 0.91, 'ted_spread': 0.1, 'mortgage_30y': 2.86, 'vix': 24.36000061035156}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2021-09-22 was -3.40%, which classifies as 'negative'.


LINK-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -22.5%, annualized vol 108.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: LINK-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=15.16, end=11.75, cumulative_return=-22.5%, annualized_volatility=108.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 260.319, 'unemployment': 6.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.65, 't10y3m_spread': 0.7, 'breakeven_10y': 1.72, 'hy_oas': 5.03, 'ig_oas': 1.3, 'ted_spread': 0.11, 'mortgage_30y': 2.8, 'vix': 32.459999084472656}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of LINK-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for LINK-USD starting 2020-10-27 was +10.61%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLB over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.4%, annualized vol 9.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=23.16, end=24.40, cumulative_return=+5.4%, annualized_volatility=9.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.16, 'cpi_yoy': 246.626, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19882.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.83, 't10y3m_spread': 1.3, 'breakeven_10y': 1.87, 'hy_oas': 3.52, 'ig_oas': 1.04, 'ted_spread': 0.3, 'mortgage_30y': 3.85, 'vix': 9.729999542236328}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2017-10-06] ["IYW, ADBE, CRM, CTSH: Large Outflows Detected at ETF Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel , one standout is the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (Symbol: IYW) where we have detected an approximate $98.7 million dollar outflow -- that's a 2.6% decrease week over week (from 24,600,000 to 23,950,000). Among the largest underlying components of IYW, in trading today Adobe Systems Inc (Symbol: ADBE) is up about 0.5%, Salesforce.com Inc (Symbol: CRM) is up about 0.7%, and Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (Symbol: CTSH) is higher by about 0.6%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the IYW Holdings page \u00bb The chart below shows the one year price performance of IYW, versus its 200 day moving average: Looking at the chart above, IYW's low point in its 52 week range is $114.68 per share, with $151.91 as the 52 week high point - that compares with a last trade of $151.86. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average \u00bb . Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs. Click here to find out which 9 other ETFs experienced notable outflows \u00bb The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "MKSI Instruments Looks Bullish on Robust Growth Drivers We issued an updated research report on premium scientific and technical instruments company, MKS Instruments, Inc.MKSI , on Oct 6. In the last month, shares of this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock have yielded a return of 91.2%, outperforming 57.4% growth recorded by the industry . Notably, the attractiveness of this stock as a current investment choice is further accentuated by its favorable VGM Score B. Also, the stock's projected sales growth is 41.8% and earnings per share growth is 79.5% for 2017 compared to the respective tallies of 10.7% and 57.1% estimated for the industry. Moreover, the company's earnings are projected to be up 15.7% in the next three to five years. Why Should You Grab the Stock? MKS Instruments has a well-balanced technology portfolio and in

Predict whether the return of XLB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLB starting 2017-10-09 was +1.30%, which classifies as 'positive'.


DBB over past 60 days: cumulative return +9.5%, annualized vol 17.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: DBB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=18.13, end=19.86, cumulative_return=+9.5%, annualized_volatility=17.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 282.543, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21932.71, 't10y2y_spread': 0.76, 't10y3m_spread': 1.59, 'breakeven_10y': 2.41, 'hy_oas': 3.39, 'ig_oas': 1.05, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 3.56, 'vix': 31.15999984741211}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of DBB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for DBB starting 2022-01-26 was +4.40%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLK over past 60 days: cumulative return -5.3%, annualized vol 36.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=70.41, end=66.69, cumulative_return=-5.3%, annualized_volatility=36.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.58, 'cpi_yoy': 294.913, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22125.625, 't10y2y_spread': -0.21, 't10y3m_spread': 0.53, 'breakeven_10y': 2.38, 'hy_oas': 4.9, 'ig_oas': 1.52, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 5.51, 'vix': 23.8799991607666}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-07-20] ["US STOCKS-Nasdaq rises on positive earnings signals as inflation concerns loom By Echo Wang July 20 (Reuters) - The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed over 1% on Wednesday as investors digest the latest earnings as positive signals of the economy, albeit rising concerns on inflation and a tightening Fed. The S&P 500 edged up 0.39% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.12%. Netflix Inc's NFLX.O shares jumped 6% after the company predicted it would return to customer growth during the third quarter, while posting a smaller-than-expected 1 million drop in subscribers in the second quarter. Other high-growth stocks extended gains following the forecast from the streaming service provider. Shares of Apple Inc AAPL.O, Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O, Microsoft Corp MSFT.O and Meta Platforms Inc META.O added between 1% and 3.6%. The S&P 500 technology sector index .SPLRCT rose 1.3%. \u201cInflation remains a very strong consideration on investors\u2019 minds\u2026 what we are seeing today are some positive earnings announcements allowing investors to hang their hats on some positive news that should bode better for the remainder of Q3, and 2022,\u201d said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at AXS Investments in Port Chester, New York. \u201cFor Tesla, and Netflix and some of these bellwether companies \u2026 investors are looking for messaging on the outlook that these companies have on the balance of 2022.\u201d Electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc TSLA.O added 0.6% ahead of its earnings report after market close. Analysts expect aggregate year-on-year S&P 500 profit to grow 5.9% in this reporting season, down from the 6.8% estimate at the start of the quarter, according to Refinitiv data. Runaway inflation initially led markets to price in a full 100-basis-point hike in interest rates at the Fed's upcoming meeting next week, until some policymakers signaled a 75-basis-point increase. At 1:45 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 37.45 points, or 0.12%, to 31,789.6, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 15.19 points, or 0.39%, to 3,951.88 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 145.44 points, or 1.24%, to 11,858.59. Trading remained volatile in thin volumes, with the CBOE Volatility index .VIX last down 24.05 points to its lowest in over a month. \"Low volumes accentuate market moves historically and even though we've wiped off $10 or $15 trillion from global equities this year, there's still a lot of excess liquidity. So low volume on excess liquidity can still accentuate moves,\" John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, said. Health insurer Elevance Health Inc ELV.N plunged 9% as the largest S&P percentage loser, as the company\u2019s medical costs failed to decrease in line with rival UnitedHealth Group Inc. Baker Hughes Co BKR.O tumbled 7.8% as the oilfield services provider reported a bigger second-quarter loss, while its adjusted profit also missed estimates. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.55-to-1 ratio;

Predict whether the return of XLK over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLK starting 2022-07-21 was +6.45%, which classifies as 'positive'.


FXI over past 60 days: cumulative return -25.6%, annualized vol 28.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: FXI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=28.94, end=21.52, cumulative_return=-25.6%, annualized_volatility=28.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.08, 'cpi_yoy': 298.007, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.41, 't10y3m_spread': 0.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.42, 'hy_oas': 4.97, 'ig_oas': 1.7, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.92, 'vix': 30.76000022888184}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-10-19] ["US STOCKS-Wall St struggles to gain as soaring Treasury yields hurt earnings confidence For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click LIVE/ or type LIVE/ in a news window. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at highest since July 2008 Netflix jumps after reversing customer losses Tesla third quarter earnings awaited Procter & Gamble up on Q1 revenue, profit beat Indexes: Dow up 0.21%, S&P down 0.10%, Nasdaq down 0.10% Updates prices to open By Ankika Biswas and Shreyashi Sanyal Oct 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes struggled for direction on Wednesday as a surge in Treasury yields to 14-year highs on expectations of bigger interest rate hikes dampened budding optimism from a bright start to the earnings season. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note US10YT=RRclimbed to its highest levels since July 2008 in a steep selloff in U.S. government bonds, with a weak U.S. housing report failing to deter investors from selling bonds. Housing starts, a measure of new residential constructions, dropped 8.1% in September in the latest sign of the economy losing steam, taking a hit from the Federal Reserve aggressive monetary policy tightening. The PHLX Housing Index .HGX fell 3.4%, adding more pain to stock markets attempting to break out of months of declines, with the three main indexes remaining deep in bear market territory. While some gauges of the equity market's health showed that the latest rally may be the start of a sustained move higher, many investors are awaiting signs of cooling inflation, which is way above the Federal Reserve's target. The U.S. central bank is likely to raise rates by 75-basis points for the fourth straight time this year in November. \"We probably just saw a bear market bounce and it is going to be in this kind of environment where the market's going to face volatility until the Fed feels comfortable enough to slow their pace of rate hikes,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. \"That probably won't be coming until we start to see some weakness in the labor market, which is helping fuel inflation pressures.\" Analysts have cut their third-quarter profit growth expectations for S&P 500 companies to just 2.8%, from an 11.1% increase forecast at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data. At 10:41 a.m. ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI was up 63.29 points, or 0.21%, at 30,587.09, the S&P 500 .SPX was down 3.85 points, or 0.10%, at 3,716.13 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC was down 11.31 points, or 0.10%, at 10,761.10. Netflix NFLX.O jumped 14.8% after it attracted 2.4 million new subscribers worldwide in the third quarter, more than double the consensus forecast, and guided for 4.5 million additions by year end. Dow components Procter & Gamble CoPG.N and Travelers Companies IncTRV.N rose 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively, after the companies posted better-than expected quarterly profit. Growth stocks including Amazon.com AMZN.O, Microsof

Predict whether the return of FXI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for FXI starting 2022-10-20 was +9.76%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLF over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.6%, annualized vol 19.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLF
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=34.72, end=34.93, cumulative_return=+0.6%, annualized_volatility=19.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.1, 'cpi_yoy': 272.676, 'unemployment': 5.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21617.828, 't10y2y_spread': 1.1, 't10y3m_spread': 1.27, 'breakeven_10y': 2.37, 'hy_oas': 3.34, 'ig_oas': 0.93, 'ted_spread': 0.07, 'mortgage_30y': 2.77, 'vix': 16.719999313354492}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2021-08-09] ["QUAL, BLK, TGT, ADBE: Large Inflows Detected at ETF Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (Symbol: QUAL) where we have detected an approximate $194.4 million dollar inflow -- that's a 0.8% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 174,250,000 to 175,650,000). Among the largest underlying components of QUAL, in trading today Blackrock Inc (Symbol: BLK) is trading flat, Target Corp (Symbol: TGT) is up about 0.2%, and Adobe Inc (Symbol: ADBE) is lower by about 0.2%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the QUAL Holdings page \u00bb The chart below shows the one year price performance of QUAL, versus its 200 day moving average: Looking at the chart above, QUAL's low point in its 52 week range is $99.1678 per share, with $139.05 as the 52 week high point \u2014 that compares with a last trade of $138.72. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average \u00bb. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs. Click here to find out which 9 other ETFs had notable inflows \u00bb The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "What Is The Likelihood Of A Rise In Adobe's Stock? Adobe\u2019s stock (NASDAQ: ADBE) rose by 4.8% to $626 in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 1.7% over the last twenty-one trading days. The shift toward Digitization and cloud offerings due to the pandemic has continued to be beneficial to the company as they reported a 23% y-o-y in increase in revenue for Q2. For Q2 2021, Digital Media segment revenue was $2.79 billion (up by 25% y-o-y), Creative revenue was $2.32 billion (up 24% y-o-y), and Document Cloud revenue was $469 million (up 30% y-o-y). Now, is ADBE stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 64% chance of a near term rise in ADBE stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Adobe\u2019s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details. Five Days: ADBE 0.8%, vs. S&P500 0.03%; Outperformed market (47% event pro

Predict whether the return of XLF over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLF starting 2021-08-10 was -1.30%, which classifies as 'negative'.


QUAL over past 60 days: cumulative return +24.0%, annualized vol 30.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: QUAL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=70.15, end=87.00, cumulative_return=+24.0%, annualized_volatility=30.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 257.042, 'unemployment': 11.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19077.992, 't10y2y_spread': 0.47, 't10y3m_spread': 0.49, 'breakeven_10y': 1.21, 'hy_oas': 6.4, 'ig_oas': 1.7, 'ted_spread': 0.14, 'mortgage_30y': 3.21, 'vix': 40.790000915527344}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2020-06-11] ["Can the all-new Cadillac CT5 take on its European competitors? Review: It\u2019s meant to compete with European big boys like the BMW 3 Series and the Audi A4 The 2020 Cadillac CT5 review: The price is well below its in-segment competitors, but it doesn\u2019t raise the bar.", "American muscle: We compare a Chevy Camaro to Dodge Challenger Take a look at the differences and similarities between the Challenger and the Camaro and see which one is right for you Dare to compare: The Challenger and Camaro are direct competitors in American muscle cars.", "Apple stock gets an upgrade at HSBC on services optimism Apple Inc. has a big opportunity to leverage its installed base of devices to drive services growth, HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson wrote in a Wednesday note to clients. He upgraded Apple's stock to hold from sell in the report, writing that while he still has macroeconomic concerns about the company's overall business, there's also potential for the company to \"sustain innovation\" that could drive further momentum for its services segment, particularly around health care. \"The pandemic will, in our view, create more demand for health-related tools and Apple could play a large role in addressing that demand,\" Cote-Colisson wrote. Health represents \"the first or second largest sector in the economy\" depending on countries, he said, though Apple could face challenges getting regulatory clearance to collect health data. Cote-Colisson raised his price target on Apple to $295 from $225 in the report. Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers took a more upbeat view, boosting his target to $385 from $315 in a Thursday note. \" Despite the strong [year-to-date] outperformance we have seen in shares of Apple...we continue to believe investors will view this as a favored high-quality large cap name given continued evidence of a post-COVID recovery in smartphone demand, coupled with an expectation of a positive 5G cycle materializing into late-2020/2021,\" Rakers wrote, even if that cycle is delayed by a month or two due to the pandemic. Apple shares are down 1.5% in premarket trading Thursday, though they've gained 12% over the past month as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has added 11%.", "Apple stock price target raised to $390 from $340 at BofA Securities", "As Apple Stock Hits Record Prices, Analysts See Higher Highs Ahead Three more Wall Street pundits turned incrementally more positive on the prospects for the company, which yesterday crossed the $1.5 trillion market capitalization level for the first time ever.", "Picking Winners and Losers as Video Streaming and Cord-Cutting Grow Consumers have finally hit a ceiling on how much money they\u2019re willing to spend on video content\u2014and the market is headed for a period of deep disruption that will only exaggerate recent trends in cord-cutting and subscription services.", "Apple to devote $100 Million to racial-justice initiative \u2018Things must change\u2019 Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said

Predict whether the return of QUAL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for QUAL starting 2020-06-12 was +2.85%, which classifies as 'positive'.


VEA over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.0%, annualized vol 11.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VEA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=32.82, end=32.81, cumulative_return=-0.0%, annualized_volatility=11.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.12, 'cpi_yoy': 256.036, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20843.322, 't10y2y_spread': 0.1, 't10y3m_spread': -0.3, 'breakeven_10y': 1.65, 'hy_oas': 4.31, 'ig_oas': 1.26, 'ted_spread': 0.2, 'mortgage_30y': 3.6, 'vix': 16.90999984741211}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2019-08-08] 4 Safe Stocks to Buy Amid Trade War Turbulence The U.S.-China trade war is on and that makes finding good, safe stocks to buy much more difficult than before. Over the past few months there was a semantics debate over what exactly the trade tensions between the U.S. and China should be labeled as. Is it a full blown trade war? Or is it just a trade dispute, or trade skirmish? Today, that question seems fully answered. U.S. President Donald Trump upped the ante in early August by promising to introduce a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods by September. China responded in force, suspending the purchase of new U.S. agricultural products and devaluing its own currency to decade lows against the U.S. Dollar. As such, there’s no question about it. With both sides upping the ante to much more serious levels than before, the U.S.-China trade war is fully here. Stocks dropped in response. Big time. In just a few trading days, the S&P 500 dropped more than 5%. As of this writing, it looks likely that the market’s decline will run into 10%-plus territory within the next few trading days. Thus, in a matter of a few trading days, stocks have gone from making new all-time highs, to being in correction territory. That is the definition of volatility. And when volatility comes roaring back into markets, investors flock to safety. Common financial safe havens included Treasuries (which have been rally in mode) and gold (which just made a six year high). Another financial safe haven is the class of high quality, high moat, big that won’t be hit hard by this trade war drama. As such, I fully expect those “safe stocks” to out-perform so long as trade war drama hangs around. Which stocks fall into the safety stocks category? Let’s take a closer look at four safe stocks to buy amid the recent trade war turbulence. Safe Stocks to Buy Amid Trade Turbulence: AT&T (T) Source: Shutterstock The first safety stock on this list is a telecom giant with a big yield, stable operations, minimal trade war exposure and huge forthcoming catalysts on the horizon. AT&T (NYSE:) is one of America’s largest telecom companies. As a U.S. telecom giant, AT&T’s operations won’t be disrupted by a trade war. Consumers will still need internet service and mobile coverage, and will be willing to pay up for it so long as labor conditions remain favorable (which they do). Furthermore, T stock has a 6% yield which: 1) is pretty much higher than every other blue-chip yield in the market, and 2) looks really attractive next to a 10-Year Treasury yield that is below 2%. Also of note, AT&T has huge catalysts on the horizon that could breathe life back into this sluggish stock. First, AT&T is set to launch HBO Max soon, and this streaming service has enough content firepower from the Time Warner acquisition to make noise in the streaming landscape. If so, AT&T could pivot its negative cord-cutting narrative, into a positive streaming sub growth narrative. That will put upward pressure on

Predict whether the return of VEA over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VEA starting 2019-08-09 was +2.73%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLI over past 60 days: cumulative return +13.4%, annualized vol 32.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=53.84, end=61.08, cumulative_return=+13.4%, annualized_volatility=32.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 257.042, 'unemployment': 11.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19077.992, 't10y2y_spread': 0.5, 't10y3m_spread': 0.54, 'breakeven_10y': 1.33, 'hy_oas': 6.23, 'ig_oas': 1.6, 'ted_spread': 0.13, 'mortgage_30y': 3.13, 'vix': 33.84000015258789}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2020-06-24] ["European stocks in the red as investors fret about rising U.S. Covid-19 infections Cluster of M&A news and weakness by drug groups marks trading European stocks traded lower on Wednesday, as markets struggled to gain traction against a backdrop of rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. Technology stocks were a bright spot after another record session for the Nasdaq Composite", "Apple's stock slips 0.7% premarket, after rallying 4.8% the past 2 days to Tuesday's record close", "Apple Chip Supplier Upgrades Outlook on Lockdown Demand Apple chip supplier Dialog Semiconductor raised its revenue outlook on Wednesday, citing strong demand for tablets and wearable products", "Barron\u2019s Daily: Even the Nasdaq Is Falling as Covid Spike Spurs Demand for Stay-at-Home Stocks A new stimulus bill could pass in July, Covid-19 testing will increase in the U.S., tech stocks reach new highs, and other news to start your day.", "Apple stock falls after report says Justice Department looking at App Store investigation Apple Inc. could face heightened antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. as the Department of Justice and state attorneys general are looking at an investigation that would focus on the company's App Store, according to a Politico report. European regulators also have investigations underway that look into Apple's App Store and Apple Pay practices. Apple takes a cut of revenue when users make in-app purchases of digital services through third-party apps, which some developers have criticized as anticompetitive and arbitrary. The European investigation of Apple Pay will examine Apple's control over the NFC reader on iPhones, which enables contactless payments. The company has restricted the way third parties can tap into this technology. Apple shares are off 0.6% in premarket trading Wednesday. The stock has gained 48% over the past three months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 26%.", "Facebook, Microsoft, Zoom, More Software Stocks Get a Lift Goldman Sachs technology analyst Heather Bellini does a deep dive on valuation for the stocks she covers, in the process lifting her targets for a slew of familiar software names.", "Apple acquires security company Fleetsmith Apple Inc. has acquired security company Fleetsmith, according to a blog post on the Fleetsmith website. Fleetsmith helps with device setup and security patching for Apple devices including Macs and iPhones that are used in enterprise settings. The company's tools help businesses automatically set up Apple devices for new employees and manage fleet-wide issues in a single place. \"Our shared values of putting the customer at the center of everything we do without sacrificing privacy and security, means we can truly meet our mission, delivering Fleetsmith to businesses and institutions of all sizes, around the world,\" Fleetsmith said of the Apple deal. Apple didn't immediately respond to a MarketWatch request for comment. Terms of the deal weren't disclosed in the Fleetsmith post. App

Predict whether the return of XLI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLI starting 2020-06-25 was +6.60%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ACWI over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.6%, annualized vol 23.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ACWI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=83.79, end=82.46, cumulative_return=-1.6%, annualized_volatility=23.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.83, 'cpi_yoy': 298.786, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.57, 't10y3m_spread': -0.51, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 4.64, 'ig_oas': 1.48, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.08, 'vix': 24.540000915527344}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-11-15] ["US STOCKS-Wall Street jumps on growing evidence of easing inflation By Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas Nov 15 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes jumped on Tuesday as growing evidence of cooling inflation bolstered hopes of smaller rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while Walmart's upbeat forecast powered gains in retail sector. Data showed U.S. producer prices increased less than expected, rising 8% in the 12 months through October against an estimated 8.3% rise, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The report follows a softer-than-expected consumer prices reading late last week, which sparked a massive rally on hopes that the Fed would tone down its aggressive monetary policy approach that has roiled markets this year. Following the latest data, traders' bets of a 50-basis points rate hike in December surged to 91% compared with 71.5% last week. FEDWATCH \"Going into the final months of the year, this (the inflation data) gives the Fed a chance to go from at least 75 to 50 basis points and potentially even further,\" said Phil Blancato, chief executive of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management in New York. Shares of Walmart Inc WMT.N jumped 7% after the top U.S. retailer lifted its annual sales and profit forecasts, benefiting from a steady demand for groceries despite higher prices. Its results boosted stocks of other major retailers, including Target Corp TGT.N and Costco COST.O. Target will report results on Wednesday. Home Depot Inc HD.Nleft its annual forecasts unchanged, but the home improvement chain's results exceeded Wall Street expectations and shares rose 1.6% amid a jump in shares of retailers. Among the S&P 500 sectors, consumer staples was up .SPLRCS 1.2%, while the consumer discretionary .SPLRCD index jumped 1.9%. Boosting the Nasdaq .IXIC, shares of megacap technology and other growth stocks such as Apple AAPL.O, Microsoft Corp MSFT.O and Alphabet GOOGL.O rose between 1% and 3%. Focus was also on comments from policymakers, after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard and Governor Christoper Waller in recent days emphasized on the need to keep raising rates to rein in inflation. Atlanta President Raphael Bostic echoed the views, saying he sees little evidence that the central bank's aggressive monetary policy tightening is slowing inflation. At 12:41 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI was up 164.48 points, or 0.49%, at 33,701.18, the S&P 500 .SPX was up 51.46 points, or 1.30%, at 4,008.71, and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC was up 253.48 points, or 2.26%, at 11,449.70. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese firms including JD.Com JD.O, Alibaba Group Holding BABA.N rose between 7% and 12% after President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's meeting on Monday where they pledged more frequent communications. U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM.N jumped 12.2% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway BRKa.Nbought more than $4.1 billion of stock in the company. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a

Predict whether the return of ACWI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ACWI starting 2022-11-16 was -1.61%, which classifies as 'negative'.


BIL over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.0%, annualized vol 0.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BIL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=77.79, end=77.79, cumulative_return=+0.0%, annualized_volatility=0.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 263.579, 'unemployment': 6.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21082.134, 't10y2y_spread': 1.17, 't10y3m_spread': 1.26, 'breakeven_10y': 2.24, 'hy_oas': 3.41, 'ig_oas': 0.95, 'ted_spread': 0.15, 'mortgage_30y': 2.73, 'vix': 21.459999084472656}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of BIL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BIL starting 2021-02-17 was -0.02%, which classifies as 'flat'.


LINK-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +11.4%, annualized vol 66.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: LINK-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=2.34, end=2.61, cumulative_return=+11.4%, annualized_volatility=66.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.55, 'cpi_yoy': 259.127, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20709.212, 't10y2y_spread': 0.17, 't10y3m_spread': 0.06, 'breakeven_10y': 1.63, 'hy_oas': 4.03, 'ig_oas': 1.04, 'ted_spread': 0.25, 'mortgage_30y': 3.6, 'vix': 18.229999542236328}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of LINK-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for LINK-USD starting 2020-01-28 was +71.12%, which classifies as 'positive'.


TLH over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.2%, annualized vol 15.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: TLH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=105.32, end=106.57, cumulative_return=+1.2%, annualized_volatility=15.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.33, 'cpi_yoy': 295.097, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22125.625, 't10y2y_spread': -0.44, 't10y3m_spread': 0.12, 'breakeven_10y': 2.48, 'hy_oas': 4.41, 'ig_oas': 1.49, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 4.99, 'vix': 21.290000915527344}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of TLH over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for TLH starting 2022-08-09 was -5.80%, which classifies as 'negative'.


HYG over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.6%, annualized vol 7.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: HYG
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=52.55, end=53.40, cumulative_return=+1.6%, annualized_volatility=7.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.66, 'cpi_yoy': 243.618, 'unemployment': 4.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19398.343, 't10y2y_spread': 1.22, 't10y3m_spread': 1.95, 'breakeven_10y': 2.04, 'hy_oas': 3.99, 'ig_oas': 1.28, 'ted_spread': 0.53, 'mortgage_30y': 4.09, 'vix': 12.779999732971191}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of HYG over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for HYG starting 2017-01-20 was +1.10%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SLV over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.8%, annualized vol 16.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SLV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=16.61, end=16.74, cumulative_return=+0.8%, annualized_volatility=16.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.55, 'cpi_yoy': 258.63, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20985.448, 't10y2y_spread': 0.32, 't10y3m_spread': 0.33, 'breakeven_10y': 1.75, 'hy_oas': 3.6, 'ig_oas': 1.0, 'ted_spread': 0.37, 'mortgage_30y': 3.74, 'vix': 14.81999969482422}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of SLV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SLV starting 2019-12-31 was -1.62%, which classifies as 'negative'.


EMB over past 60 days: cumulative return -6.1%, annualized vol 17.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EMB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=85.32, end=80.08, cumulative_return=-6.1%, annualized_volatility=17.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.05, 'cpi_yoy': 255.802, 'unemployment': 13.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19077.992, 't10y2y_spread': 0.52, 't10y3m_spread': 0.56, 'breakeven_10y': 1.16, 'hy_oas': 7.16, 'ig_oas': 2.01, 'ted_spread': 0.24, 'mortgage_30y': 3.28, 'vix': 27.989999771118164}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of EMB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EMB starting 2020-05-21 was +2.69%, which classifies as 'positive'.


QQQ over past 60 days: cumulative return +9.7%, annualized vol 15.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: QQQ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=97.87, end=107.41, cumulative_return=+9.7%, annualized_volatility=15.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.4, 'cpi_yoy': 240.101, 'unemployment': 4.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19197.938, 't10y2y_spread': 0.8, 't10y3m_spread': 1.27, 'breakeven_10y': 1.52, 'hy_oas': 5.54, 'ig_oas': 1.49, 'ted_spread': 0.51, 'mortgage_30y': 3.48, 'vix': 12.720000267028809}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2016-07-28] ["3M Stock Seen Edging Up to $186 Second-quarter margins expanded by about 50 basis points year-over-year, and should accelerate through the second half.", "An Aerospace Parts Maker That Can Fly 35% Higher Shares of airplane power systems supplier Astronics have lost altitude but could rise significantly.", "Cirrus Logic Surges 13%: Ride That iPhone Headset Plug! Shares of chip maker Cirrus Logic (CRUS), a prominent supplier to Apple (AAPL), are up $5.24, or 13%, at $47.01, after last night easily topping fiscal Q1 expectations and forecasting this quarter\u2019s revenue well ahead of consensus as well.And, indeed, a big part of last night\u2019s conference call with analysts was the company indirectly confirming a \u201cdigital\u201d jack for headsets for the next iPhone, presumably an \"iPhone 7,\u201d which many think will appear in September. All that headphone capability now in a USB or \u201clightning\u201d port, believe analysts, translates directly into higher revenue for Cirrus for each phone sold.The company\u2019s CEO, Jason Rhode, was asked by Needham & Co.\u2019s Rajvindra Gill what he sees as the general increase in using \u201cdigital,\u201d or \u201cUSB\u201d ports for headphones. Said Rhode:Well, like I referred to earlier, we are excited to see there's already models on the market that have switched over to USBC completely, and either ship with -- either ship with or have available accessory USBC headsets or adapters, one or the other, or both. The interesting thing is that as the core chipsets stand today, that's quite a painful thing to do, just the way the USBC stack is handled and routing of audio and uses of voice interface is kind of clumsy in the handsets themselves. So, we see that getting sorted out over the next 6 to 12 months in a way that makes it significantly easier for handset manufacturers to go that route, and so we would anticipate that would gain a lot of momentum over that timeframe. And, like I say, I think we're extremely well-positioned to capitalize on that.", "MasterCard profit, revenue beat expectations MasterCard Inc. said profit and revenue grew in the second quarter as transactions increased at the credit card company. Results topped expectations, and shares climbed 1.8% premarket. Like fellow card company Visa Inc., MasterCard charges fees to financial institutions for transactions that travel over their networks.", "Smartphone market stagnant for second straight quarter The global smartphone market struggled to grow in the second quarter. Vendors shipped 343.3 million smartphones, a 0.3% increase from 342.4 million in the year-earlier period, according to IDC. That was the second straight quarter of stagnant volumes. Samsung Electronics maintained its lead in the market, nabbing a 22.4% global share, versus 21.3% last year. Apple Inc.'s share declined slightly, to 11.8% from 13.9%, while smaller Asian vendors such as Huawei, OPPO and Vivo continued to steal a larger part of the pie. Anthony Scarsel

Predict whether the return of QQQ over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for QQQ starting 2016-07-29 was +1.48%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLU over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.3%, annualized vol 17.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLU
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=21.05, end=21.32, cumulative_return=+1.3%, annualized_volatility=17.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.4, 'cpi_yoy': 252.561, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20431.641, 't10y2y_spread': 0.18, 't10y3m_spread': 0.31, 'breakeven_10y': 1.81, 'hy_oas': 4.54, 'ig_oas': 1.55, 'ted_spread': 0.42, 'mortgage_30y': 4.45, 'vix': 19.5}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2019-01-10] ["Apple's stock slips 0.7% premarket, after rising 3.6% the past 2 sessions", "The stock market is too damaged for a sustained rally, strategist warns Morgan Stanley\u2019s Wilson: Too much resistance in stock market for a \u2018straight up\u2019 recovery The stock market is in the midst of its longest winning streak in months but at least one Wall Street strategist is not convinced that investors are out of the woods yet.", "Q&A with Cody Willard: Apple, Disney, Adobe and small-cap stocks Stocks are vulnerable to another leg down Stocks are vulnerable to another leg down.", "Many retail investors panicked and sold during last month\u2019s market meltdown (again) Yes, Main Street missed the latest rally, fund industry analyst says Yes, Main Street missed the latest rally, fund industry analyst says.", "Cisco Sees Its Chance as Internet Traffic Builds Cisco Systems used the Consumer Electronics Show as a place to tout its high-speed networks and security tools, products that will be more critical as the volume of data on the internet grows, and the flow speeds up.", "Elon Musk Goes to China at a Vital Time for Tesla and for the U.S. The backdrop of Musk\u2019s visit was hard not to notice: The U.S. and China this week wrapped up the latest round of talks that investors hope will stabilize trade relations.", "The sharpest investors use this simple tool to pick stocks Valuing a public company like a private business gives a more realistic picture of its potential Valuing a public company like a private business gives a more realistic picture of its potential, writes Vitaliy Katsenelson.", "Roaring U.S. jobs market, waning inflation give Fed room to pause on interest rates Consumer price index likely softened again at end of 2018 A gargantuan surge in new jobs in December, a recent lull in inflation and a more cautious Federal Reserve have dispelled fears that the U.S. faces a looming recession.", "High-end cars and other luxury goods join Apple in feeling effect of China\u2019s slowdown Jaguar Land Rover cites China demand as it cuts 4,500 jobs in the U.K. Automobile makers join luxury-goods companies in seeing demand dented as China\u2019s economy slows and Chinese consumers\u2019 mood takes a turn for the worse.", "Lenovo overtakes HP in PC sales as market contracts Overall worldwide PC sales declined for both the fourth quarter and year in 2018, while Lenovo Group Ltd. and Dell Technologies Inc.'s share of the market grew, according to research firm Gartner on Thursday. Global PC sales fell 4.3% to 68.6 million units in the fourth quarter, and 1.3% to 259.4 million in 2018, Gartner said. \"Just when demand in the PC market started seeing positive results, a shortage of CPUs (central processing units) created supply chain issues,\" said Mikako Kitagawa, senior principal analyst at Gartner, in a statement. \"After two quarters of growth in 2Q18 and 3Q18, PC shipments declined in the fourth quarter.\" Market share for Lenovo and Dell grew, however.

Predict whether the return of XLU over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLU starting 2019-01-11 was +4.57%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +166.2%, annualized vol 157.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1.98, end=5.27, cumulative_return=+166.2%, annualized_volatility=157.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 263.579, 'unemployment': 6.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21082.134, 't10y2y_spread': 1.01, 't10y3m_spread': 1.05, 'breakeven_10y': 2.15, 'hy_oas': 3.75, 'ig_oas': 1.02, 'ted_spread': 0.12, 'mortgage_30y': 2.73, 'vix': 25.559999465942383}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of SOL-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2021-02-03 was +202.71%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EWJ over past 60 days: cumulative return -7.0%, annualized vol 16.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EWJ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=62.83, end=58.46, cumulative_return=-7.0%, annualized_volatility=16.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.06, 'cpi_yoy': 268.383, 'unemployment': 5.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21440.929, 't10y2y_spread': 1.5, 't10y3m_spread': 1.64, 'breakeven_10y': 2.51, 'hy_oas': 3.37, 'ig_oas': 0.93, 'ted_spread': 0.14, 'mortgage_30y': 2.94, 'vix': 23.1299991607666}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2021-05-13] Can DocuSign Fend Off Adobe's E-Signature Product? There's plenty of competition for DocuSign's (NASDAQ: DOCU) flagship e-signature product, but the digital agreement software continues to lead in the market. On a Fool Live episode recorded on April 28, Fool contributors Brian Feroldi and Brian Withers discuss the e-signature specialist's biggest competitor and how investors should think about this rivalry. 10 stocks we like better than DocuSign When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.* David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and DocuSign wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys. See the 10 stocks *Stock Advisor returns as of February 24, 2021 Brian Feroldi: I do see a question here that I do want to take. It's from MS Regular saying, "Is there any competitor for DocuSign?" Yes. There's a lot of competitors for DocuSign. The number one competitor is a little company called Adobe. Adobe is not a company that should be overlooked because they have deep relationships, and they have a growing marketing and sales business that is focused on business services and it is winning. Their e-signature solution is part of their product. But look at the results, what are the results clearly say? Clearly, there's plenty of customers that are choosing DocuSign, and DocuSign is the top dog, and first mover in this space. Moreover, DocuSign has hundreds upon hundreds of integrations directly with some of the leading products that are out there. DocuSign works directly with Microsoft's products, with salesforce.com, etc. Don't overlook that as a competitive advantage. Finally, I always think about what is the value of this thing compared to the costs to a company. The productivity gains that you get from using an e-signature solution are just so massive compared to the costs of it. I don't think once you adopt DocuSign that you're going to be going away from it. Competition is something to watch, but DocuSign is basically a verb at this point and they have clearly done a great job about staying the lead husky. Brian Withers: Yeah. I wanted to tag onto that, Brian. DocuSign has got like 70 percent-plus market share, Adobe is in the single digits. But do you have to remember and I think you stated it well, is people don't necessarily go to Adobe to buy the e-signature product they go to buy more of a holistic solution. Recently there was an announcement that I saw that "Adobe partners with all 50 states to modernize digital experience for citizens", and really if you read through the documentation what they're doing is they're putting together websites and experiences for customers and some small part of that is a signature process. Maybe they're building online forms for people, or questionnaires to allow the

Predict whether the return of EWJ over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EWJ starting 2021-05-14 was +3.52%, which classifies as 'positive'.


BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +107.2%, annualized vol 74.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=23137.96, end=47945.06, cumulative_return=+107.2%, annualized_volatility=74.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 263.579, 'unemployment': 6.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21082.134, 't10y2y_spread': 1.09, 't10y3m_spread': 1.16, 'breakeven_10y': 2.21, 'hy_oas': 3.47, 'ig_oas': 0.97, 'ted_spread': 0.15, 'mortgage_30y': 2.73, 'vix': 19.96999931335449}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of BTC-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2021-02-16 was +11.43%, which classifies as 'positive'.


BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -33.8%, annualized vol 43.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=6595.41, end=4365.94, cumulative_return=-33.8%, annualized_volatility=43.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.2, 'cpi_yoy': 252.594, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20304.874, 't10y2y_spread': 0.25, 't10y3m_spread': 0.65, 'breakeven_10y': 1.97, 'hy_oas': 4.25, 'ig_oas': 1.38, 'ted_spread': 0.32, 'mortgage_30y': 4.81, 'vix': 20.799999237060547}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of BTC-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2018-11-23 was -17.19%, which classifies as 'negative'.


BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +10.5%, annualized vol 46.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=361.23, end=399.11, cumulative_return=+10.5%, annualized_volatility=46.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.33, 'cpi_yoy': 288.561, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21967.045, 't10y2y_spread': 0.18, 't10y3m_spread': 2.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.86, 'hy_oas': 3.65, 'ig_oas': 1.33, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 5.11, 'vix': 28.209999084472656}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2022-04-24]

Predict whether the return of BNB-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2022-04-25 was -26.37%, which classifies as 'negative'.


HAUZ over past 60 days: cumulative return -2.5%, annualized vol 15.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: HAUZ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=22.17, end=21.60, cumulative_return=-2.5%, annualized_volatility=15.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.68, 'cpi_yoy': 250.227, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20150.476, 't10y2y_spread': 0.48, 't10y3m_spread': 0.96, 'breakeven_10y': 2.05, 'hy_oas': 3.77, 'ig_oas': 1.17, 'ted_spread': 0.61, 'mortgage_30y': 4.44, 'vix': 23.6200008392334}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of HAUZ over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for HAUZ starting 2018-04-03 was +3.05%, which classifies as 'positive'.


IVV over past 60 days: cumulative return -6.4%, annualized vol 19.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: IVV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=176.55, end=165.23, cumulative_return=-6.4%, annualized_volatility=19.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.38, 'cpi_yoy': 237.336, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19001.69, 't10y2y_spread': 0.99, 't10y3m_spread': 1.44, 'breakeven_10y': 1.31, 'hy_oas': 8.09, 'ig_oas': 2.14, 'ted_spread': 0.29, 'mortgage_30y': 3.65, 'vix': 19.3799991607666}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2016-02-22] ["China bans foreign publishing content online All online content must be on servers hosted within China China has issued broad new rules for online publishing that formalize the government\u2019s already strict control of the Internet and seek to expand the scope of online content stored inside its borders.", "Samsung\u2019s Flagship Galaxy S7 Disappoints At the annual Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, whereas LG Electronics (066570.Korea) got good reviews for its new module smartphone G5, Samsung Electronics' (005930.Korea/SSNLF) flagship Galaxy S7 turns out lackluster.Year-to-date, Samsung fell 6.3%, broadly in line with competitor Apple's (AAPL) 8.8% decline.Galaxy S7 offers few new bells and whistles, reviewedThe Wall Street Journal colleagues Jonathan Cheng and Min-Jeong Lee:The high-end Galaxy S7 and its curved-screen companion, the Galaxy S7 Edge, released on the sidelines of the Mobile World Congress trade show Sunday, look strikingly similar to their predecessors and lack fresh features to set them apart in a crowded field of Android handsets.The smartphones come with an improved camera and longer battery life, in addition to two features that had been dropped from the Galaxy S6 last year: removable memory storage and water resistance.Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim agrees:READ MORE.", "FBI boss to Apple backers: \u2018Stop saying the world is ending\u2019 James Comey argues agency won\u2019t \u2018set a master key loose\u2019 Protesters worldwide plan to blast the FBI for trying to break into a terror suspect\u2019s iPhone, and the public looks like it\u2019s mostly with Apple in this fight. Meanwhile, the FBI\u2019s director, James Comey, says everyone should essentially chill out.", "Samsung\u2019s Faster Charging without Wires", "Looking for bottoms in oil prices and the stock market? Keep looking Critical intelligence before the U.S. market opens The final dispatches of an already-dead earnings season and another batch of Fed blather may sway investors\u2019 mood in the week ahead. But perhaps even more relevant to the stock market\u2019s odds of building on last week\u2019s big push \u2014 the best of the year so far \u2014 is oil\u2019s next move.", "Apple holds firm against FBI, calls for expert panel to discuss encryption Tim Cook posts his own Q&A over San Bernardino phone Apple renews its defense for why it has refused to help law enforcement unlock the phone of a shooter in the San Bernardino terror attack and suggests the government form a commission to address the thorny problems posed by the growing use of encryption.", "Apple still giving the FBI advice on how to crack San Bernardino shooter\u2019s phone The tech giant says it\u2019s done everything within its power to help The tech giant says it\u2019s done everything within its power to help.", "What Apple and the head of the FBI agree on The tech giant and authorities have some common ground The tech giant and authorities have some common ground.", "Read the letter Tim C

Predict whether the return of IVV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for IVV starting 2016-02-23 was +5.67%, which classifies as 'positive'.


^VIX over past 60 days: cumulative return +25.5%, annualized vol 113.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ^VIX
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=12.07, end=15.15, cumulative_return=+25.5%, annualized_volatility=113.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.59, 'cpi_yoy': 259.25, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20709.212, 't10y2y_spread': 0.22, 't10y3m_spread': 0.09, 'breakeven_10y': 1.66, 'hy_oas': 3.75, 'ig_oas': 1.05, 'ted_spread': 0.2, 'mortgage_30y': 3.51, 'vix': 15.149999618530272}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2020-02-05] ["Stocks That Hit 52-Week Highs On Wednesday", "Stocks That Hit 52-Week Highs On Wednesday", "Adobe Stock Could Head Higher, but Tread Carefully With shares up 31% since Nov. 1, is Adobe (NASDAQ:) stock a buy at the current price level? After December\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s earning beat, the company could see its impressive level of growth continue \u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0094 and push ADBE stock even higher. Source: r.classen / Shutterstock.com Currently sitting at , Adobe shares sell at a rich valuation. In this runaway bull market, that hardly seems to matter. So, with the company\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s growth story continuing, shares could reach new highs in the near-term. Furthermore, it\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s safe to say that with ADBE stock, you are buying a business with a tremendous economic moat. The company\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s software offerings are invaluable assets. Whether we are talking about the unit, Document Cloud unit or , the company plays a heavy role in the new economy. However, is buying Adobe stock today a smart play long term? It may pay to be patient, and wait for a dip to accumulate shares. That said, let\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s dive in, and see why buying later is the best call for ADBE stock. ADBE Stock Has Gotten Ahead of Itself As InvestorPlace\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s Luke Lango discussed Dec. 19, the company\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s revenue growth justified a price target of . But now, shares trade above that price target and are closer to the $365 level. It\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s tough to say the recent rise of ADBE stock is due to fundamentals. After December\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s earnings beat, much of Adobe\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s future upside was priced into shares. So, what\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s driving the recent run-up? Mr. Market, or specifically, Mr. Broad Market. Major indices are even after the coronavirus panic, so it\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s no mystery why ADBE stock keeps climbing higher. With its de facto monopoly on digital design, Adobe should be christened a Nasdaq Composite blue chip. Given major tech names like Microsoft (NASDAQ:) are ripping to new highs, there\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s no reason to leave out Adobe shares from the fun. However, outside of the broad market, what could send ADBE stock lower? How about the company\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s projected revenue growth slowdown? As this Seeking Alpha contributor discussed, it\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s hard to justify Adobe\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s high forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio when the company\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0099s growth rate is expected to drop below the . Once investors get back to using fundamentals \u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0094 not momentum \u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u0080\u00c2\u0094 to

Predict whether the return of ^VIX over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ^VIX starting 2020-02-06 was +180.35%, which classifies as 'positive'.